Action, uncertainty and policy selection

Active inference and expected free energy

Active inference extends perception-as-inference into action. An agent does not only update beliefs about the world; it chooses actions that are expected to reduce uncertainty and bring about preferred outcomes.

1. From free energy to action

In the previous page, free energy described how a belief can be updated to better explain sensory input. Active inference adds policy selection: the agent asks which action is expected to produce the best future evidence.

$\pi^\* = \arg\min_{\pi} G(\pi)$

Here, $\pi$ is a policy: a possible course of action. $G(\pi)$ is expected free energy: a score for how good or bad that policy is expected to be before the agent acts.

2. Interactive policy selection

The agent can move left, right, up or down. Some locations are informative because they reveal hidden state information. One location is preferred because it contains the goal. The selected action is the one with the lowest expected free energy.

Selected action right
Lowest expected free energy 0.00
Interpretation The agent favours the policy with the best balance of goal value, information gain and cost.

3. Pragmatic and epistemic value

A useful teaching decomposition of expected free energy is:

$G(\pi) \approx \text{expected cost} - \text{expected information gain}$

Policies are attractive when they are expected to reach preferred outcomes and reduce uncertainty. This gives active inference its characteristic balance between exploitation and exploration.

Pragmatic value

Will this action lead to preferred outcomes?

Epistemic value

Will this action reduce uncertainty?

Expected free energy

A policy score combining future cost and information gain.

Policy precision

How strongly the agent commits to the best-scoring policy.

4. Perception, action and the world

Active inference closes the loop. The agent has beliefs about hidden states, uses those beliefs to predict future outcomes, selects actions, samples the world and then updates its beliefs again.

Beliefs
hidden state estimates
predict
Policies
possible actions
act
Sensations
new evidence
update